NDCs and COP30: the climate moment of truth
- Lucas Romao
- Nov 6
- 6 min read
Ten years ago, the Paris Agreement gave us a path forward. And now, in 2025, the world arrives at COP30 in Belém with a simple yet brutal question: did we do what we promised?
The answer lies in the NDCs , the commitments that each country has presented to the world. NDCs (or Nationally Determined Contributions) are the targets that each nation sets to reduce emissions and adapt to global warming, within the framework of the Paris Agreement.
They define how far we can warm the planet, and how far we can still afford to hope.
👉 November 2025 Update
According to the Climate Watch Data Tracker (WRI) (1), by the beginning of November 2025, 72 countries had already submitted new or updated NDCs, covering approximately 62% of global greenhouse gas emissions . This includes recent submissions from China (November 3) and the European Union (November 5) .
Despite this progress, another 125 countries responsible for the remaining 38% of emissions have yet to present new targets. This reveals the gap between what science demands and what policy delivers. While the planet warms, the architecture of climate promises remains incomplete —and the window for action is getting smaller and smaller.
Ten years after Paris, we remain trapped between discourse and action. And meanwhile, the time of physics, the time of carbon, does not wait for the time of politics.
💣 Where are we: a portrait of collective backwardness
The latest Emissions Gap Report 2025 leaves no doubt: Even with new targets, the world is still on track for warming between 2.5°C and 2.6°C .
In other words, well beyond the safe limit of 1.5 °C .
📉 Different paths to the same challenge
There is no single solution, nor an identical path for all countries. Each nation needs to define its own path, according to its history, economic structure, and real possibilities for transition .
Some have forests, others have technology; some still struggle against poverty, others against overconsumption.
Here, I chose to look at two countries where I lived and which represent this diversity well: Brazil and France . Two very different models of climate action, but facing similar dilemmas: how to align ambition and coherence .
🇧🇷 Brazil: Between hope and oil
Brazilian emissions are expected to fall by 14% in 2025 , according to data released this week by SEEG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation System of the Climate Observatory). This is the largest drop since 2010, driven by reduced deforestation in the Amazon and the expansion of renewable energy sources.
This shows that when the country decides to act, it has real power to turn the tide. Brazil arrives at COP30 with a new, more ambitious NDC: 53% reduction in emissions by 2035 , zero deforestation by 2030 , and the promise to lead a just ecological transition (7).
Belém will be the symbol of this: a living Amazon, living people, a living future.
But there is a paradox that is difficult to ignore. While the country talks about regeneration, oil exploration in the Amazon estuary is back at the center of the debate. These contradictions stem not only from hypocrisy, but from dependency.
Brazil still finances part of its social policies and public investments with oil royalties, and the energy transition, although urgent, needs resources that do not come from carbon.
This is the crossroads: how to change the economic base without abandoning the social base.
The same region we want to protect could become the stage for a new fossil fuel frontier. And the question that echoes is: how to reconcile a discourse of a green Amazon with a project that digs even deeper into carbon?
The International Energy Agency has already been clear: there is no room for new fossil fuel projects if we want to limit warming to 1.5°C (5). Every new well is a gamble against the planet itself.
🇫🇷 France: a solid plan, but a slow pace
Across the Atlantic, France remains true to its National Low Carbon Strategy . On paper, the country is an example: neutrality by 2050, -90% by 2040. But in practice, the Haut Conseil pour le Climat itself acknowledges: “ we are going too slowly (6) .”
Transportation emissions have remained almost stable since 2015. Agriculture is resisting change. And the current pace is insufficient to get there.
Thus, we have two different stories but the same dilemma: Brazil advances quickly in rhetoric but falters in coherence . France advances methodically, but without speed .
Both show that the climate crisis is also a crisis of pace, of priorities, of political imagination.
📚 Climate education: bridging science and action
Perhaps the greatest challenge is not technological, but educational . Most people still don't understand what it means to live in a world 2.5°C warmer.
2.5°C is not a statistic. It is the silent collapse of forests, the disappearance of reefs, the displacement of millions (IPCC 2023 (8)). It is the planet saying that our inertia has a price .
Climate education is the antidote to indifference. Because only those who understand the problem can transform it.
🌱 What we do at Yby
This is the perspective we have at Yby Dinâmicas : transforming knowledge into action. We combine climate education and transition strategy , from awareness to implementation.
With tools like the Climate Mural , 2 Tonnes , and the Sweep platform , we help organizations understand what's at stake, measure their impact, and build real transformation plans.
Educating is the beginning. Transforming is the path. Regenerating is the purpose.
🌎 What's at stake in Belém
The implementation of the NDCs will be the focus of negotiations in Belém. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world is still moving slowly, without formal sanctions, but with increasing pressure from markets and civil society.
For Brazil and France, 2025 is a decisive year: the former has the chance to prove it can combine decarbonization, climate justice, and development; the latter, to maintain European leadership without losing momentum in implementation. COP30 will be more than just a conference.
It will be a mirror: of our promises, of our inconsistencies, and of our real capacity to act in accordance with science. If the Paris Agreement was the treaty of hope, Belém needs to be the one of courage.
Ultimately, NDCs are not just government commitments, they are calls for consistency . And whoever knows how to transform goals into concrete strategies will lead the transition that the Paris Agreement envisioned and that COP30 needs to materialize.
This article was prepared based on official reports and scientific analyses updated until November 2025.
📚 Sources and references
(1) Climate Watch NDC Tracker (WRI) , updated November 6, 2025
(2) UNEP (2025). Emissions Gap Report 2025 – “Off Target.” United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Data on NDCs and the global warming scenario between 2.5°C and 2.6°C. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report
(3) Climate Observatory (2025) . “SEEG 2025: Brazil’s emissions fall 14% and reach lowest level in 15 years.”
Data released in November 2025.
(4) UNFCCC – NDC Registry (2025). Official repository of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted up to November 2025. https://unfccc.int/NDCREG
(5) IEA (2021). Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. International Energy Agency. States that there is no room for new oil and gas projects if the world is to limit warming to 1.5°C. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
(6) Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2025). Rapport annuel sur la neutralité carbone en France. French Climate Council. Highlights that France must double the pace of annual emission reductions to meet its National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) targets. https://www.hautconseilclimat.fr/
(7) Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (Brazil). New NDC 2025. Document submitted to the UNFCCC, with a target of reducing emissions by 53% by 2035 and zero deforestation by 2030. https://www.gov.br/mma
(8) IPCC (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. Synthesis report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle, scientific basis for mitigation and adaptation policies. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6-syr/
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